See the Moment, Seize the Day (1/3)
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The US debt-GDP ratio hit 69% ($10 Trillion) in September 2008, before the $750 billion (or Obama’s $819 billion, about 5% of GDP) bailout. Her GDP stands at $14 trillion, with combined consumer and corporate debt comprising 123% and 140%, respectively, of that GDP. Faced with $59.1 trillion in Government liabilities (including unfunded Medicare and Social Security obligations) she is deeply in the red.
Great Depression II?
Rising unemployment (2.39 million jobs lost from December 2007-2008) will certainly increase consumer loan delinquency levels, already at 25% in May 2008. Corporate debt is looming as the next bubble to burst, projected at 23% delinquency by 2010. Is it the Great Depression II? September 2008 signaled the worst Balance Sheet recession in history, more than the Great Japanese Recession of the 1990s, where the fall in asset prices wiped out corporate demand equivalent to 20% of Japan’s GDP.
Indeed, the US Financial System’s Toxic Assets seriously undermine their balance sheets, preventing a return to normal lending. Worse, the US treasury announced in November that the $750 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) would be used to stimulate spending and lending, not to absorb Toxic Assets. But Bernanke and Paulson were not straightforward, using $350 billion to recapitalize banks, propping up the Balance Sheets of their former Wall Street colleagues, instead of reinvigorating lending.
On the wonderment of Obama as to why TARP did not work (and the $819 – or is it $950 – billion bailout will fail), our Economist-President sagely stated “that the worst thing is for America not to do anything,” at Davos. Indeed setting, say a 50% floor price now for Toxic Assets, with the US Government guaranteeing the difference between that and the eventual price that the assets are disposed, would immediately restart banks’ lending. It would remove the Financial System’s uncertainty, where the unknowns are unknown (per the Knightian Uncertainty perspective), where people are afraid to act because they don’t see the floor.
Holding Steady
The Philippine debt-GDP ratio stands at 51.7%, down from 2005’s 71.2%; significantly better than the US. The Administration is aiming at 40.7% by 2010. While US recession endangers revenues of export-dependent countries like China, and India, our service-oriented economy survives, our “exports” – Filipino Expats – in demand in over 20 countries.
A word of caution: perhaps the riskiest sub-sector of our exports is our US-based Expats, who contribute about 56.1% of total remittances (November 2008 figures).
Only three Doomsday scenarios face businessmen in the Global Economic downturn: slow, slower, and slowest. We survive on good governance, resilience, and optimism. The average Filipino family never knew American abundance, earning a $48,000 per capita GDP, spending less than 5% on housing mortgages, or $1 (their “One Peso”) for McDonald’s. Thusly are we optimistic in the Crisis: we can survive with tricycles and kamote. We can weather the Financial Storm’s intensities, and identify and capitalize on opportunities hidden beneath the gloom.
Taking from our local Taipans, the time is now to institute internal and external changes – using business savvy and cash-rich positions – to turn businesses into lean, mean, fighting machines needed in the Global Economic Meltdown.
Taipans: Thoroughly Filipino Entrepreneurs
JG Summit Holdings, led by Lance Gokongwei, despite an 86.2% drop in 2008 net income, is considering a $0.4 billion joint venture (JV) with the Petroleum Authority of Thailand, for a mutual expansion that will enable them to serve the Philippine market’s bounding demand (among the top five for Petrochemicals).
San Miguel Corporation (SMC), under Ramon Ang sold 43% (about Php54.2 billion) of its brewery unit to Japan’s Kirin, funding its P32.2 billion Petron Corp. stake, and its Php27.08 billion, 27% stake in Meralco. It is likewise bidding for the 620-megawatt (MW) Bataan Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Power Plant. They represent strong moves into high-growth industries of power and infrastructure, while shedding businesses that have since 1890, plateaued in growth and potential.
Spearheaded by Tessie Sy-Coson, SM Prime Holdings, despite stock values dropping 5.7% last November is expanding its recent diversification into Real Estate, by developing Hamilo Coast, a Batangas Coastal development linked to SM Mall of Asia, via Ferry. It combines Real Estate, Tourism, and of course, “Malling”.
Do they know something we don’t? Their actions present a reengineering that will deliver modest growth during the downturn, but massive revenues when the upswing happens. Their cash-rich position has situated them to enter into these diversifications arguably at when it is most cost-effective.
In the business arena, our taipans exhibit an absorptive capacity and agility, like prizefighter Manny Pacquiao’s. We should emulate those qualities: striking hard and fast, in the Global Crisis. The next article explores fundamentals that capitalize on opportunities the Crisis presents.
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Source by Teodorico Haresco
