Sugar Tastes Bitter
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Sugar is a very important sweetening agent that is widely used and traded throughout the world. It has gained its importance with time and now no cuisines in any culture can consider itself complete with sugar. Exceptionally, now a days Indian sugar Industry is finding its taste bitter. Record sugar production has resulted in a glut in the market, lowering prices and swelling up stocks, thus eroding the profitability of sugar mills and around 566 sugar mills in the country and all major sugar producing states which contributes 85% sugarcane production of the country consists Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Naidu, Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat finding themselves in adverse conditions, where all sugar mills in the country are suffering from financial health problem. Consequently, the sugar industry is facing a severe financial crises resulting in delays in payment to the farmers. The industry has been pressuring the government to provide fiscal relief including an export subsidy to overcome the crises.
Domestic Price and Production Status:
The country is facing a sugar glut following a record harvest of more than 30 million tonnes in the 2006-2007 crop year ended September 30, while annual domestic demand stand at only 19 million tonnes. Where surplus stock stands at 11 million tonnes, which is 6.79% of global production. According to an earlier forecast by Indian sugar mills Association, sugar output in the 2006-2007 sugar crop year ending in September was anticipated to around 30 million metric tonnes, down from an ISO estimate of 33 million tonnes. This is primarily because, more sugarcane farmers in the main sugar growing state of Uttar Pradesh are shifting to wheat cultivation. Some sugar farmers have already started selling their sugarcane to mills less than half of the current state recommended price of Rs. 1250 -1300 per tonnes since they are keen to clear their land to start cultivating wheat for which minimum support price MSP has been increased. The current price of the domestic whole sale sugar at just around Rs. 12.50/kg is far below the cost of its production. It has plunged from around Rs. 18 -19/ kg in the last 12 months which ultimately resulting in disequilibrium in demand and supply, delay in payment to farmers, rise in inventory level, pressure on government, quarter to quarter rising losses to sugar mills.
World Sugar Market:
The World Sugar production stands at 162.63million tonnes, where 120 countries are contributed in the production, where major contributors are Brazil, European Union, Thailand, Australia, Cuba, India, United States and China. Where India had been the largest producer of sugar in the world for 7 out of 10 years but now Brazil has taken a lead from India.
INTERNATIONAL LEADERS IN SUGAR MARKET
Here both are contributing around 39% of the total production. As far as world sugar statistics are concerned, these are not even showing the positive node for the domestic industry. As it is evident from the table given below:
WORLD SUGAR BALANCE
Parameters 2006/07 2005/06 Change Change
in million tonne in %
Production 162.621 152.079 10.542 6.93
Consumption 153.506 149.859 3.647 2.43
Surplus/Deficit 9.115 2.220
Import demand 44.438 46.676 -2.238 -4.79
Export availability 47.492 46.689 0.803 1.72
End Stocks 65.825 59.764 6.061 10.14
Stocks/Consumption ratio in % 42.88 39.88
Source: ISO quarterly market outlook, May 2007
The International Sugar Organization has estimated a higher global sugar/surplus for the year 2007-08 where in the year 2006-07 it is stood at a surplus of 9.115 million tonnes, which is adversely affecting the exporting countries’s export reserves and pulling down the international prices. Even the global numbers are not in favour of domestic market.
The Tough way ahead
Indian sugar market in the short to medium term is not in a position to provide some encouraging picture. Because, sugar is an agricultural commodity since it is produced from cane. It is also an industrial commodity because of the characteristics of the contracting processes relating to procurement of cane and the manufacturing, storing, packing and marketing processes related to sugar. But few agricultural and industrial commodities have been as tightly as sugar. The continuity of supply of refined sugar at low prices to a large consumer market has dominated the central government‘s policy. The certainty of procurement of sugarcane at high prices has dominated the state government’s policies. Hence, the sugar industry may be viewed as a crushed intermediary between low output prices and high input prices. Secondly, the sugar mills are unable to prune output, procurement and procurement price in response to lower prices in the short term, in order to keep them in liquid form. Because, they have to settle their debts, which accounts nearly 67% of the cost of production of sugar and the only source of paying the debts is the revenue generated from sales, which are now at discounting rate. But if this situation continues, it will result in dire consequences. Thirdly, after fulfilling the domestic consumption at discounting rates, next challenge for the industry is settlement of its surplus stock, where the way leads to international competition. The world exports of sugar hover around 40 million tonnes and the leading sugar exporting country is Brazil, exporting to around 55% of its total produce. Brazil is followed by European Union, Thailand, Australia and Cuba in the list. These top five exporting countries constitutes almost 65% of the world’s total export, where India is no where in the top list even being a second largest producer in the world. Although India is facing competitive pricing policies of leading exporters and finding it on the backside place and the export import policy depends upon the production demand mismatch in the country, where governments ban on export pushes the sector in dark. The financial position of the market leaders in the country is critical. It is evident from the numbers of the Sugar industry’s top leaders, Which are marching from bad to worse situation on quarter to quarter basis. If we compare the numbers related to PAT(profit after tax) in the June to Dec, 06 with Jan to June, 07 half yearly basis, these are showing horrible picture. The declining sales prices are liable
WHAT THE NUMBER SAYS
Sugar Producing Companies Previous
June-Dec 06
(PAT) Current
Jan-june 07
(PAT) Absolute change % change
1. Bajaj Hind 55.48 -56.81 -58.14 -104.79
2. Shree Renuka 1758 44.2 26.62 151.42
3.Dhampur Sugar Mills 8.39 -37.58 -45.97 -547.91
4. Balrampur Chinni 85.41 -27.34 -112.75 -132.01
5. Bannai Aaman 48.83 21.12 -27.71 -5674
6. Triveni Engg 52.54 -14.57 -67.11 -127.73
7. Andhra Sugar 36.45 10.33 -26.12 -71.65
8. Shakti Sugar 16.16 14.02 -2.14 -13.24
9. Uttan Sugar 36.56 -31.09 -67.65 -185.03
10. Upper Ganges -3.19 -25.06 -21.87 -685.57
Total Profits/Loss 354.21 -102.78 -456.99 -129.01
Any profit/Loss 35.42 -10.27 -456.97 -129.01
for dominating the operating margins of the companies and hence, the depressing financial condition of the concerns are finding inability to bottoming out The overall position of the sector, which is clear from the charts is not impressive in any way. The industry is facing sharp downward trend.
POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE
PAT of ten leading companies on average basis
Figures in Rs crore
The numbers are in red and showing losses of these companies, amounts to 10.27 crore, where the average profit of the top ten leading companies was 35.42 crore and it results in negative change over 456%.
Future Prospect
India’s transport sector is growing rapidly and presently accounts for over half of the country’s oil consumption whilst the country has to import a large part of its oil needs. Hastening interest in an ethanol program was the country’s sugar glut (part of which the industry is now exporting to the world market) and burgeoning supplies of molasses. The sugar industry lobbied the government to embrace a bio-ethanol program for several years. The industry emphasized that producing fuel ethanol would absorb the sugar surplus and help the country’s distillery sector, which is presently burdened with huge overcapacity, and also allow value adding to by-products, particularly molasses.
The major industry player in India can go for Ethanol production, which requires investment for diversification in to distillery, ethanol and power may become possible. For that government of India has made blending of 5%. ethanol in motor vehicle fuels, compulsory, all over India and will be raised to 10% from Oct 2008. Until, recently this was restricted to only new states in India. This directive has provided sugar mills the opportunity to implement forward integration. A 5% ethanol blend on all India basis would require 500 million litres. The current availability of molasses and alcohol would be adequate to meet this requirement of the chemical industry and potable sectors, as India is the second largest producer of sugar in the world. This is only prospect which is available for the industry to survive and to change its outlook and another plus point with the industry is the demand of product which is free from heavy fluctuation and never ending. But initial investment and gestation period is the major area of concern. Beside this, government is nursing the industry by announcing subsidies, lifting of export ban and possible tax benefits in forms of reliefs, concessions and rebates.
But we can’t consider all these enough for the industry. These are just like the first aid for the industry and steps are required on the part of government to curb over supply, strength in prices, input –output balance and international competitiveness by adjusting its import export policy to protect the taste of sugar for the industry.
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Source by Amarjit Saini